tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29999370714781147472024-02-19T01:36:38.983-08:00Dr. Marcin PiatkowskiI am a Senior Economist at the World Bank office in Warsaw and Assistant Professor of Economics at Kozminski University in Warsaw. All texts on the blog are private and should not be associated with any of my employers. Email: mpiatek@kozminski.edu.plDr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.comBlogger212125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-38791084129306700272014-04-06T00:15:00.000-07:002014-04-06T00:15:03.611-07:00Now mostly on Twitter at @mmpiatkowski. Pls join!I have discovered Twitter and moved most of my activity there. Pls join me there at @mmpiatkowski. It's fun!Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-78795280817614358562013-12-08T01:15:00.001-08:002013-12-08T01:15:19.976-08:00How to spend money on innovation in Poland more effectively?I spoke on it during the III Marshal Convent in Torun, December 4. <a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B25xt6x6_taCWU9jZll6SWJ6VVIwMlpRVmVpRGhhTWc1QXNB/edit">Slides</a> summarize my speech.<br />
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Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-59060629150267491122013-10-22T04:21:00.000-07:002013-10-22T04:21:49.105-07:00How newspaper headlines can deceive us...<br />
The new York Review of Books has a <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2013/oct/17/headline-headaches/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=October%2017%202013&utm_content=October%2017%202013+CID_06ff9c37396f9b996a0043559c3f24c2&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Headline%20Headaches">nice article by Tony Parks on how headlines</a>, which are usually the responsibility of the newspapers' editor not the writer, may mislead and confuse the readers. Good read and a warning to all writers and readers alike.<br />
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Three most interesting excerpts:<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">"Writer and reader continue to nurture the comforting illusion that they are at opposite ends of a direct line of communication, that the writer has spoken exactly and completely his mind on the matter in question, while the reader has followed and understood his reasoning from beginning to end. In reality, every message, whether in book, newspaper, or blog, is mediated in all kinds of ways, all of which tend to push the text toward two related editorial priorities: melodrama and the received idea."</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">and</span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times New Roman, Times, serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 23.390625px;">"</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">But nothing prejudices the way a reader comes to a piece more than its headline. Nothing is more likely to make him or her believe, even after reading the article through, that the author has said something he has not said and perhaps would never want people to imagine he has said"</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">and</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">"</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">It wasn’t always thus. Up until about a century ago, a headline or title was usually a neutral attempt to inform the reader of the contents of an article or book. But as the twentieth century progressed, or regressed, it was more and more understood as an advertising opportunity and the writing itself as no more, no less, than “content”—a consumer good. Newspapers on the verge of financial meltdown grow desperate and clearly seek to gratify their particular readership’s supposed prejudices. I just heard a BBC interview with Alan Rusbridger, the editor of the leftwing </span><em style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">Guardian</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">, about an ongoing spat between his paper and the rightwing</span><em style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">Daily Mail</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;">. Rusbridger spoke of a mutual respect between two papers that knew how to give their target readership what they wanted. He didn’t appear to realize how depressing and patronizing this was as a comment on both readers and journalists. As if the argument between the papers was in fact no more than an effective commercial ploy".</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 23.390625px;"><br /></span>Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-79976559723826252472013-10-18T06:30:00.004-07:002013-10-18T06:31:12.290-07:00My article in the Polish edition of "Forbes"<br />
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"Polski nowy Złoty Wiek: z europejskich peryferii do centrum"<br />
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<img border="0" src="http://www.forbes.pl/g/i.aspx/50/0/forbes/635176984351215453.jpg" /><br />
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Andrzej Wajda wyreżyserował kolejny, świetny film. Jego „Wałęsa. Człowiek z Nadziei” jest zasłużenie polskim kandydatem do Oskara. Tło filmu pokazuje jednak, jak siermiężna była polska rzeczywistość w tamtych czasach. Jakże wiele się od tego czasu zmieniło<br />
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The full text available <a href="http://www.forbes.pl/polski-nowy-zloty-wiek-polska-ma-szanse-dogonic-zachod-w-20-lat,artykuly,164881,1,1.html">here</a>Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-34335764905181423112013-10-18T01:53:00.000-07:002013-10-18T01:54:19.001-07:00Financial Times reviews the "Poland's New Golden Age" paper<br />
Financial Times has reviewed the paper on its BeyondBrics blog. This is a fairly nice <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/10/14/poland-at-the-dawn-of-a-golden-age/#axzz2hiTijeDX">review</a>. An excerpt below:<br />
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"Most people looking at a global economy buffeted by five years of crises and turmoil would be loath to call this a “Golden Age”. But that is just what Poland is experiencing, according to a new World Bank paper. Marcin Piatkowski, a World Bank economist, makes the fairly convincing argument that central Europe’s largest economy is enjoying its greatest period of stability since the country appeared on the map of European history more than a thousand years ago."<br />
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<br />Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-12714319066570039602013-10-12T08:44:00.002-07:002013-10-18T01:54:35.116-07:00Poland's new generation is the most competitive generation everAs I argue in the World Bank paper, economic models, which spit out long-term growth projections, are deeply flawed as they are blind towards soft, but nonetheless critically important factors such as culture, values or the determination to get ahead and catch up with the West.<br />
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Specifically, growth models compare oranges to apples when they do not reflect the fundamental difference in Poland between the old, post-Soviet generation and the new, European generation in terms of work ethos, command of English, personal integrity, entrepreneurship, educational aspirations, social trust, openness, internet use or civic engagement.<br />
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The old, 50+ generation has throughout their lives acquired skills, which allowed them to survive under communism, but have proven difficult to thrive in capitalism. Kafkaesque incentives, lack of innovation, acceptance of mediocre quality, lack of focus on customer service and satisfaction, and a guarantee of employment promoted a skill set and mentality that are not the same as those needed today in modern European capitalism. The work ethos also suffered, following in the footsteps of earlier generations.<br />
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In turn, the young generation of Poles today is probably the most competitive Polish generation ever. Anecdotal and formal evidence (Social Diagnosis 2011, 2013, Boni 2011) suggests that the new generation is more materially motivated, more assertive, and more focused on success than the old generation. It is also much more traveled, cosmopolitan, urban, open-minded and European. It is also significantly better educated: only 13 percent of the generation aged 55-64 has tertiary education relative to 39 percent for those aged 25-34, one of the largest differences among the OECD countries (OECD 2013). The new generation is also widely perceived to be among the most productive and hard working in Europe, in reversal of old stereotypes.Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-26248770566784265862013-10-11T08:01:00.000-07:002013-10-18T06:27:18.112-07:00Interview on the "Poland's New Golden Age" paper by Obserwator FinansowyThe interview entitled "<a href="https://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/tematyka/finanse-publiczne/bank-swiatowy-nadchodzi-czas-dla-polski-najlepszy-od-500-lat/">The best time for Poland after 500 years</a>" (in Polish) has been published by the National Bank of Poland's "Obserwator Finansowy". The English version is <a href="http://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/tematyka/finanse-publiczne/bank-swiatowy-nadchodzi-czas-dla-polski-najlepszy-od-500-lat/www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/tematyka/in-english/the-best-time-for-poland-after-500-years/">here</a>Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-66163045478872348642013-10-07T01:20:00.001-07:002013-10-18T01:55:00.406-07:00My new World Bank's paper on "Poland's New Golden Age: Shifting from Europe's Periphery to Its Center" - comments welcome!<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">I
have just published a new paper in the World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
Series, WPS 6639 on "<a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/10/18347962/polands-new-golden-age-shifting-europes-periphery-center"><span style="color: blue;">Poland's New Golden Age: Shifting from Europe's Periphery to
Its Center</span></a>". The paper's abstract is below.</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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To my knowledge, the paper is the first attempt to:</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.
Draw worldwide attention to the remarkable economic performance of Poland since
1989, becoming Europe's No. 1 in terms of GDP growth. The country has also done
very well relative to 40 countries at a similar level of development, including
all Asian Tigers and other emerging markets, coming in in the top 5 between
1995 and 2012.<br />
2. Argue that in mere 20 years Poland seems to have offset almost 500 years of
economic decline relative to Western Europe, moving on its way from the
continent's periphery to its center;</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3. Assert
that the rise of Poland (and the rest of Central Europe) will re-shape Europe's
politics, affect the functioning of the EU and -- through the EU -- affect the
global economy.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Comments
to the paper are much welcome! </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">They
will help me to write a book based on the paper.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0in; text-transform: uppercase;">ABSTRACT<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0in;">The
objective of the paper is (i) to help fill the gap in knowledge on the
long-term economic history of Poland; (ii) to provide a new perspective to the
debate on the economic future of Poland, with a special focus on its
historically unprecedented post-transition growth experience; and (iii) to
analyze critically long-term growth projections for Poland. The paper argues
that (i) Poland has just had probably the best 20 years in its economic
history, growing the fastest among all European economies and one of the
fastest worldwide; (ii) by 2013, it Poland achieved levels of income, quality
of life, and well-being likely never experienced before, including relative to
Western Europe, a natural benchmark; and (iii) Poland is well placed to
continue converging with the Western European levels of income, permanently
moving from the economic periphery of Europe, where it languished for
centuries, to the European economic center. The twenty-first century thus
promises to become Poland's new Golden Age. The paper calls for further
research on the lessons from Poland's successful growth model for other
countries in the region and beyond as well as on the long-term implications of
the rise of Poland for the future of Europe</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-58305796334166507762013-06-28T09:18:00.002-07:002013-06-28T09:18:22.478-07:00My speech on Poland's Golden AgePuls Biznesu, a business daily, published an <a href="http://www.pb.pl/3199279,94614,polska-gospodarka-na-polmetku-zlotej-ery">article </a>summarizing my speech on Poland's future growth prospects delivered during the Emerging Markets Business Conference held in Warsaw earlier this week. It is entitled "Poland in the middle of its Golden Age".<br />
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This is an unauthorized and unedited text, but gets some points right. Pics from the conference are <a href="https://www.facebook.com/EMBSConference/photos_stream#!/media/set/?set=a.373362679384727.87333.358771904177138&type=3">here</a><br />
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<br />Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-22132812147290756712013-06-25T00:40:00.002-07:002013-06-25T00:40:50.314-07:00New report on Poland's competitiveness<br />
Last week, we launched a report on Poland's Competitiveness ("Competitive Poland. How to Advance in the World's Economic League?"), which I have co-authored as part of an independent team of experts led by Prof. Jerzy Hausner, Poland's former Deputy Premier and Minister of Economy, now member of the MPC.<br />
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The launch took place in the Presidential Palace and was chaired by the President Komorowski himself. Aside from the research team, the launch featured a large group of leading experts, who commented on the report, academics and media.<br />
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The report in Polish is available here: <a href="http://kongresig.pl/pl/konsultacje-raportu/">http://kongresig.pl/pl/konsultacje-raportu/</a><br />
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The English version should be coming soon.<br />
Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-89590203959217611682013-02-27T00:56:00.000-08:002013-02-27T00:56:06.822-08:00How to spend 10 billion euro more effectively? A new World Bank report on innovationThe electronic version of the World Bank report on "<a href="http://imagebank.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2013/02/14/000356161_20130214144748/Rendered/PDF/753250WP0P09660ATION0SUPPORT0REVIEW.pdf">Poland Enterprise Innovation Support Review</a>", which I have co-authored, is finally out.<br />
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In a nutshell, the report assesses (i) how effectively Poland has spent almost 10 billion euro of EU and Polish funds on supporting enterprise innovation in the current EU funding perspective and (ii) recommends changes in institutions, instruments and ideas to spend another 10 billion euro in the new EU perspective 2014-2020.Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-37102689816416368422013-02-21T00:13:00.001-08:002013-02-21T00:14:19.655-08:00New books<ol>
<li><span class="lrg bold"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Think-Twice-Harnessing-Power-Counterintuition/dp/1422187381/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1361433817&sr=8-4&keywords=think+twice">Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition</a> </span>by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Michael-J.-Mauboussin/e/B001HCX42G/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_4?qid=1361433817&sr=8-4">Michael J. Mauboussin</a> (**)</li>
<li><span class="lrg bold"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-austerity-economic-renewal-ebook/dp/B0047T7FXK/ref=sr_1_sc_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1361433890&sr=8-1-spell&keywords=beyond+austeirity">Beyond austerity: A path to economic growth and renewal in Europe</a> </span>by Charles Roxburgh, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/McKinsey-Global-Institute/e/B004FW5TY6/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1361433890&sr=8-1-spell">McKinsey Global Institute</a>, Baudouin Regout and Jan Mischke (**)</li>
<li><span class="lrg bold"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Brain-Rules-Principles-Surviving-Thriving/dp/0979777747/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1361433935&sr=8-1&keywords=brain+rules">Brain Rules: 12 Principles for Surviving and Thriving at Work, Home, and School</a></span>by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/John-Medina/e/B002BLNBUW/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1361433935&sr=8-1">John Medina</a> (**)</li>
<li><span class="lrg bold"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Incognito-The-Secret-Lives-Brain/dp/0307389928/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1361433978&sr=8-1&keywords=incognito">Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain</a> </span>by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/David-Eagleman/e/B001JRX0OQ/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1361433976&sr=8-1">David Eagleman</a> (**)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Start-up-Nation-Israels-Economic-ebook/dp/B004QZ9P6K/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1361434256&sr=8-2&keywords=start+up+nation" style="color: #cc6600;"><span class="lrg bold" style="font-size: 1.5em;">Start-up Nation: The Story of Israel's Economic Miracle</span></a> <span class="med reg" style="font-size: 1.2em;">by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Senor/e/B0026BVCY4/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_2?qid=1361434256&sr=8-2" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Dan Senor</a> and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Saul-Singer/e/B0034P2M8G/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_2?qid=1361434256&sr=8-2" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Saul Singe</a>r (***)</span>
</li>
<li><span class="lrg bold"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Restless-ebook/dp/B002RZZIXU/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1361434009&sr=8-3&keywords=restless">Restless</a> </span>by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/William-Boyd/e/B000AQ76C4/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3?qid=1361434009&sr=8-3">William Boyd</a> (**)</li>
<li>Leszek Miller, Robert Krasowski "Anatomia siły", Czerwone i Czarne, 2013 (***)</li>
</ol>
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<br />Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-68928130821317010222013-01-30T04:49:00.002-08:002013-01-30T04:51:16.450-08:00Europe vs. the US - how sclerotic is Europe?The ongoing narrative, supported by the global English-speaking media, is that there is something fundamentally wrong with Europe, which is "not competitive, can't create jobs and can't grow". It compares the sclerotic, lazy and quickly aging old continent the with the young, dynamic and attractive USA (with all these supposedly great facebooks etc). Sounds familiar?<br />
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Except that it is not true.<br />
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I have just looked at the official IMF numbers from the World Economic Outlook and compared Europe's GDP per capita growth (PPP), both for the euro zone and EU-27, with the US.<br />
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The conclusion: since 1993, the economic performance of EU-27 was better than in the US. The euro zone's level of GDP per capita (data available only from 1993, so I am not manipulating with time periods here) in 2011 was only 5% lower than in the US relative to the starting level in 1993, but at exactly the same level relative to 2000! Sweden has grown much faster than the US in the whole period (and of course Poland was better than all of them).<br />
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So, how sclerotic is Europe?<br />
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Figure: GDP (PPP) per capita, 2011/1993 (1993=1) and 2011/2000 (2000=1)<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 292px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 53pt;" width="70"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 2432; mso-width-source: userset; width: 57pt;" width="76"></col><col style="width: 53pt;" width="70"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 2432; mso-width-source: userset; width: 57pt;" width="76"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl63" height="18" style="height: 13.8pt; width: 53pt;" width="70"></td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; width: 57pt;" width="76">2011/1993</td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; width: 53pt;" width="70"></td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; width: 57pt;" width="76">2011/2000</td></tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl63" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.8pt;">Sweden</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 2,17
</td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">Sweden</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,52
</td></tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl63" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.8pt;">EU-27</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,96
</td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">Germany</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,46
</td></tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl63" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.8pt;">USA</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,89
</td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">EU-27</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,45
</td></tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl63" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.8pt;">Germany</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,87
</td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">USA</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,37
</td></tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl63" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.8pt;">Euro area</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,83
</td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">Euro area</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,37
</td></tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl63" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.8pt;">France</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,77
</td><td class="xl63" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">France</td><td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;"> 1,35
</td></tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><td class="xl65" height="18" style="height: 13.8pt;"><br /></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Source: IMF World Economic OutlookDr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-78618361383138546742013-01-02T03:02:00.003-08:002013-01-02T03:02:40.827-08:00My paper on PKO BP's anti-cyclical role during the global crisisThe World Bank has just published its first edition of the "<a href="http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTGLOBALFINREPORT/0,,menuPK:8816192~pagePK:64168176~piPK:64168140~theSitePK:8816097,00.html">Global Financial Development Report</a>".<br />
<br />
It includes my box on PKO BP's very positive role during the 2008-2011 global crisis (Chapter 4) based on a <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTGLOBALFINREPORT/Resources/8816096-1346865433023/8827078-1346865457422/Chapter_4_Box_4.3_Supporting_Note.pdf">background paper</a>.<br />
<br />
In a nutshell, I argue the following:<br />
<br />
The case of Poland’s PKO BP suggests that domestically owned banks can play a useful counter-cyclical role during crises by supporting lending to the economy, becoming de facto “creditors of last resort”. This is largely because they are less subject to exogenous shocks, are more often funded in the domestic markets, and are more inclined to react to changing credit market conditions based on domestic fundamentals alone. They are also insulated from exogenous decisions of foreign parent banks affecting lending policies of their domestic subsidiaries.<br />
<br />
<br />
State ownership has further enhanced PKO BP’s ability to withstand the crisis by imposing on the bank a conservative lending and funding culture, enhancing the bank’s ability to attract deposits during the crisis thanks to the implicit State guarantee, and by participating in the crucial capital increase.<br />
<br />
PKO BP story also highlights the benefits of Poland’s diversified bank ownership structure, with foreign banks playing a very positive role in supporting financial deepening (World Bank, 2009), especially during good times, and domestically owned and state-controlled banks taking the lead on lending during times of external turbulence.<br />
<br />
However, the case of PKO BP suggests that for the state-controlled banks to be successful, they need to be commercially-oriented, open to free market competition, and focused on “utility banking”. They also need to be transparent, professionally managed, ideally by managers chosen through a meritocratic selection process, and subject to hard budget constraints.<br />
<br />
All of these keys conditions can be at least partly achieved by taking state banks public and listing them on a stock exchange. This not only forces these banks to adopt international accounting and reporting standards, but—thanks to a watchful eye of domestic and international shareholders—also helps impose market discipline, ensure compliance with best global practices of corporate governance, strengthen commercial orientation and sustain high quality of lending, including by mitigating political pressures. Without such market pressures, the key conditions for success are not always easy for state-owned banks to adhere to. A well embedded culture of transparency, accountability and strong business ethics is also useful, although policy recommendations on how to achieve it are not straightforward.<br />
Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-73884244367379794422013-01-02T02:11:00.001-08:002013-01-02T02:11:26.776-08:00Education for free and for all!I have just signed up for www.coursera.org, a website with "the world's best courses, online, for free".<br />
<br />
It offers plenty of interesting courses, including in economics (such as Principles of Economics for Scientists from Caltech, which would be a great complement to students of macroeconomics at Kozminski!) and in history (such as The Modern World: Global History since 1760, even though--in line with the biased Western tradition--it tends to almost totally ignore New Europe, as if it was a different continent!). No grades and credits for courses, but completion certificates are already available for some (which, I predict, will soon start to appear on people's CVs...)<br />
<br />
This is an utopian dream close to coming true: a top-notch quality of education for everyone in the world with an internet connection and an ability to read and write in English.<br />
<br />
Where is it going? In no time, these online courses will transform into full blown online universities, which will rival the established modes of off-line learning. Completion certificates from the online courses will compete with the standard course grades. Traditional universities should beware - they'd better seize on this new mode of learning or gradually lose the fight if not eventually perish (there will also be a need for a place to get young people together to benefit from the joys of the youth and find spouses...).<br />
<br />
<br />Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-2494939163560191142012-12-21T00:44:00.001-08:002012-12-21T00:45:45.137-08:00Books read recentlyRanked from * to ***:<br />
<br />
<br />
<ol start="1" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Gain-Disorder/dp/1400067820/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1356078613&sr=8-1&keywords=taleb"><span style="color: #cc6600; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Antifragile: Things That
Gain from Disorder</span></a> by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb/e/B000APVZ7W/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356078613&sr=8-1"><span style="color: #996633;">Nassim Nicholas Taleb</span></a> (***)</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Long-Way-Down-Nick-Hornby/dp/1594481938/ref=la_B000APV99Q_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1356078748&sr=1-3" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="color: #996633; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A Long Way Down</span></a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> by
Nick Hornby (**)</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Arguably-Essays-Christopher-Hitchens/dp/1455502782/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356078986&sr=1-1&keywords=arguably"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Arguably: Essays
by Christopher Hitchens</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand">by</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Christopher-Hitchens/e/B000APSKR0/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356078986&sr=1-1"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Christopher
Hitchens</span></a> (**)</span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Freakonomics-Economist-Explores-Hidden-Everything/dp/0060731338/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356079032&sr=1-3&keywords=superfreakonomics"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Freakonomics: A
Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (P.S.)</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand">by</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Steven-D.-Levitt/e/B001IGV3MY/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3?qid=1356079031&sr=1-3"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Steven D. Levitt</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand">and</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Stephen-J.-Dubner/e/B001IGV4OQ/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3?qid=1356079031&sr=1-3"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Stephen J.
Dubner</span></a> (**)</span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Price-Inequality-Divided-Society-Endangers/dp/0393088693/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356079084&sr=1-1&keywords=stiglitz+the+price+of+inequality"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">The Price of
Inequality: How Today's Divided Society Endangers Our Future</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand">by</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Joseph-E.-Stiglitz/e/B000APIKRK/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356079084&sr=1-1"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Joseph E.
Stiglitz</span></a> (***)</span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Numbers-Rule-Your-World-Probabilities/dp/0071626530/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356079122&sr=1-1&keywords=numbers+rule+your+world" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="color: #cc6600;">Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of
Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span class="ptbrand" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">by</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span class="ptbrand" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Kaiser-Fung/e/B0033ABLFM/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356079121&sr=1-1"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Kaiser Fung</span></a>
(**)</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Deception-Untold-Story-East-West-Espionage/dp/080271157X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356079151&sr=1-1&keywords=deception+the+untold+story+of+east-west+espionage+today"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Deception: The
Untold Story of East-West Espionage Today</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand">by</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="ptbrand"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Edward-Lucas/e/B001IGHPNK/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356079151&sr=1-1"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Edward Lucas</span></a>
(***)</span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Parkinsons-Law-C-Northcote-Parkinson/dp/1568490151/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356079182&sr=1-1&keywords=northcote+parkinson" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="color: #cc6600;">Parkinson's Law</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span class="ptbrand" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">by</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span class="ptbrand" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/C.-Northcote-Parkinson/e/B000AQTSGG/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356079182&sr=1-1"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">C. Northcote
Parkinson</span></a> (*)</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Boulevard-Broken-Dreams-Entrepreneurship-Failed--/dp/0691154538/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356079238&sr=1-1&keywords=boulevard+of+broken+dreams" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="color: #cc6600;">Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Why Public Efforts to Boost
Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital Have Failed--and What to Do About It
(Kauffman Foundation Series on Innovation and Entrepreneurship)</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span class="ptbrand" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">by<span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Joshua-Lerner/e/B001H6ICRY/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356079238&sr=1-1">Joshua Lern</a>er (**)</span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Plutocrats-Rise-Global-Super-Rich-Everyone/dp/1594204098/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356079315&sr=1-1&keywords=plutocrats+the+rise+of+the+new+global+super-rich+and+the+fall+of+everyone+else" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="color: #cc6600;">Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the
Fall of Everyone Else</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span class="ptbrand" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">by</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span class="ptbrand" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Chrystia-Freeland/e/B0034NIVRO/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1356079315&sr=1-1"><span style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Chrystia
Freeland</span></a> (***)</span></li>
</ol>
Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-8230252683245167142012-12-21T00:28:00.001-08:002012-12-21T00:28:36.714-08:00Doing Business 2013: Poland in the Global Top 10On December 19, I gave a presentation on the World Bank's "Doing Business 2013: Poland in the Global Top 10" as part of the <a href="http://www.tiger.edu.pl/english/seminaria/main.htm">TIGER Seminar Series</a>.<br />
<br />
I explained how Poland became the global No. 1 in improving the business environment last year. Quite an achievement! I am proud to have played a role in it.<br />
<br />
Click for more on the <a href="http://doingbusiness.org/">Doing Business rankin</a>g and <a href="http://doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/poland">Poland's</a> performance.Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-44339426152653623392012-12-01T01:00:00.001-08:002012-12-01T02:47:37.718-08:00My article in "Gazeta Wyborcza" on Doing BusinessGazeta Wyborcza, a leading Polish daily newspaper, published <a href="http://wyborcza.biz/biznes/1,100897,12957637,Jak_jeszcze_bardziej_podskoczyc_w_Doing_Business.html">an article</a> co-authored by me on how to further improve Polish ranking in the World Bank's Doing Business report.<br />
<br />
This comes after Poland was classified in the No. 1 place among the fastest reformers globally in Doing Business 2013, catapulting Poland into a 55th place overall.<br />
<br />
I bet that Poland will soon enter the top 50, and will end up in the top 30 within the next couple of years. I will be happy to have contributed to this achievement.Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-60920338543573576102012-11-27T10:29:00.001-08:002012-12-01T02:47:55.785-08:00Workshop on technology transfer in Tel AvivI have just come back from an EU-Israel workshop on technology transfer, which took place in Tel Aviv on November 25-26 (starting at 8.30am on Sunday!).<br />
<br />
I spoke on the Polish experience with using 10 billion euro of the EU and Polish public funds to support enterprise innovation in Poland, based on a World Bank report, which I co-authored and which will be published in December.<br />
<br />
Following the workshop, one of the participants, Prof. Shlomo Maital from MIT and Technion, wrote a very nice note on his blog on "<a href="http://timnovate.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/%EF%BB%BFpolands-economy-excels/">Poland's Economy Excels"</a>, which seems to have been at least partly inspired by my presentation. Delighted to see some positive PR for Poland!Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-19104086813483914562012-11-24T09:03:00.002-08:002012-12-01T02:48:19.917-08:00Minimum wage doesn't destroy jobs!What a change! <br />
<br />
In one of most revisionist texts on economics yet, <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21567072-evidence-mounting-moderate-minimum-wages-can-do-more-good-harm">the Economist</a> argues that minimum wages do not necessarily destroy jobs based on a number of studies for the US and the UK. It goes on to say that "today the consensus is that Britain’s minimum wage has done little or no harm". <br />
<br />
Most surprisingly, there is evidence that in the UK the minimum wage "not only pushed up pay for the bottom 5% of workers, but it also seems to have boosted earnings further up the income scale—and thus reduced wage inequality". Wow!<br />
<br />
The article concludes by saying that:<br />
<br />
"This new evidence leaves economists with lots of unanswered questions. What exactly is going on in labour markets if minimum wages do not hurt employment but reduce wage gaps? Are firms cutting costs by squeezing wages elsewhere? Are they improving the productivity of the lowest-wage workers? Some of the newest studies suggest firms employ a variety of strategies to deal with a higher minimum wage, from modestly raising prices to saving money from lower turnover.<br />
<br />
Policymakers face practical issues. Bastions of orthodoxy, such as the OECD, a rich-country think-tank, and the International Monetary Fund, now assert that a moderate minimum wage probably does not do much harm and may do some good. Their definition of moderate is 30-40% of the median wage. Britain’s experience suggests it might even be a bit higher. The success of the Low Pay Commission points to the importance of technocrats rather than politicians setting wage floors. Britain’s small, regular changes may be easier for firms to absorb than America’s infrequent but hefty minimum-wage increases. Whatever their flaws, minimum wages are here to stay."<br />
<br />
Background papers are here:<br />
<br />
<sup><strong>Sources</strong></sup><br />
<sup>"<a href="http://www2.gsu.edu/~ecobth/IZA_HKZ_MinWageCoA_dp6132.pdf" target="_blank">Minimum wage channels of adjustment</a>", by Barry T. Hirsch, Bruce E. Kaufman and Tetyana Zelenska, IZA Discussion Paper No 6132, November 2011</sup><br />
<sup>"<a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1177.pdf" target="_blank">Minimum wages and wage inequality: Some theory and an application to the UK</a>", by Tim Butcher, Richard Dickens and Alan Manning, October 2012</sup><br />
<sup>"<a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/19742/1/Why_Has_the_British_National_Minimum_Wage_Had_Little_or_No_Impact_on_Employment.pdf" target="_blank">Why has the British national minimum wage had little or no impact on employment?</a>", by David Metcalf, CEP Discussion Paper No 781, April 2007</sup><br />
<sup class="footnotes">"<a href="http://www.irle.berkeley.edu/workingpapers/157-07.pdf" target="_blank">Minimum wage effects across state borders: estimates using contiguous counties</a>", by Arindrajit Dube, T. William Lester and Michael Reich, The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2010</sup><br />
<sup>"<a href="http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/media/downloads/MinimumWageMaximumImpact.pdf" target="_blank">Minimum wage: Maximum impact</a>", by Alan Manning, Resolution Foundation, April 2012</sup><br />
<sup>"Revising the minimum wage-employment debate: Throwing out the baby with the bathwater?", by David Neumark, J.M. Ian Salas and William Wascher, forthcoming</sup><br />
<sup>"<a href="http://www.irle.berkeley.edu/workingpapers/166-08.pdf" target="_blank">Do minimum wages really reduce teen employment? Accounting for heterogeneity and selectivity in state panel data</a>", by Sylvia A. Allegretto, Arindrajit Dube and Michael Reich, Industrial Relations, April 2011</sup><br />
<sup class="footnotes"><a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange" target="_blank" title=" (opens in a new window) ">Economist.com/blogs/freeexchange</a></sup>Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-14306408442231385472012-08-08T02:28:00.002-07:002012-12-01T02:48:39.594-08:00Recently read books<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;">Finally, I managed to put down the list of what I have been reading recently, as always ranked from * (don't touch it) to *** (can't live without):</span>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Finance-Good-Society-Robert-Shiller/dp/0691154880/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344416563&sr=1-1&keywords=shiller" style="color: #cc6600; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;">Finance and the Good Society</a><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><span class="ptBrand">by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Robert-J.-Shiller/e/B001IO9TKE/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344416563&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Robert J. Shiller</a></span><span style="background-color: white;"> (**)</span>
</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2 by </span></span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=ntt_athr_dp_sr_1?_encoding=UTF8&field-author=Stephen%20Broadberry&ie=UTF8&search-alias=books&sort=relevancerank" style="background-color: white; color: #003399; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Stephen Broadberry</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">(Author),</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><span class="contributorNameTrigger" style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"><a asin="B001HD1H9C" href="http://www.amazon.com/Kevin-H.-ORourke/e/B001HD1H9C/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_2" id="contributorNameTriggerB001HD1H9C" style="color: #003399;">Kevin H. O'Rourke</a> (**)</span></li>
<li><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/How-Much-Enough-Money-Good/dp/1590515072/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344416885&sr=1-1&keywords=how+much+is+enough" style="color: #996633; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">How Much is Enough?: Money and the Good Life</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> by </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Robert Skidelsky and Edward Skidelsky (***)</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Imagine-Creativity-Works-Hardcover-First/dp/B007QRI1UQ/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344416996&sr=1-2&keywords=imagine+how+creativity+works" style="color: #996633; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Imagine: How Creativity Works </a>by Jonah Lehrer (*)</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Being-Wrong-Adventures-Margin-Error/dp/0061176052/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417253&sr=1-2&keywords=wrong" style="color: #996633; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error</a> by <span class="ptBrand"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Kathryn-Schulz/e/B0032DEMD8/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_2?qid=1344417248&sr=1-2" style="color: #cc6600;">Kathryn Schulz</a></span> (***)
</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Eastern-Front-1914-1917-Norman-Stone/dp/0140267255/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417575&sr=1-2&keywords=eastern+front+first+world+war" style="color: #cc6600; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;">Eastern Front 1914-1917</a> <span class="ptBrand">by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Norman-Stone/e/B001H6PP7O/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_2?qid=1344417575&sr=1-2" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Norman Stone</a> (**)</span>
</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417645&sr=1-1&keywords=Thinking%2C+Fast+and+Slow" style="color: #996633; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Thinking, Fast and Slow</a> <span class="ptBrand">by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Daniel-Kahneman/e/B001ILFNQG/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344417645&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Daniel Kahneman</a></span>
</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Iron-Kingdom-Downfall-Prussia-1600-1947/dp/0674031962/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417405&sr=1-1&keywords=Iron+Kingdom%3A+The+Rise+and+Downfall+of+Prussia%2C+1600-1947" style="color: #996633; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Iron Kingdom: The Rise and Downfall of Prussia, 1600-1947</a> by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Christopher-M.-Clark/e/B001IGO8RG/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344417405&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Christopher M. Clark</a> (***)</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Strategic-Vision-America-Crisis-Global/dp/046502954X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417877&sr=1-1&keywords=Strategic+Vision%3A+America+and+the+Crisis+of+Global+Power" style="color: #996633; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power</a> <span class="ptBrand">by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Zbigniew-Brzezinski/e/B001IGOFO2/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344417877&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Zbigniew Brzezinski</a></span> (**)</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/End-This-Depression-Paul-Krugman/dp/0393088774/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417382&sr=1-1&keywords=End+This+Depression+Now%21" style="color: #cc6600; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;">End This Depression Now!</a> <span class="ptBrand">by <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Paul-Krugman/e/B000APS32M/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344417382&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">Paul Krugman</a></span> (**)
</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">"<a href="http://www.mariuszszczygiel.com.pl/294,-gottland-(wersja-polska)">Gottland</a>" by Mariusz Szczygiel (**)</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">"Zbig. Człowiek, który podminował Kreml" by Andrzej Lubowski (**)</span></li>
<li><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Breakout-Nations-Pursuit-Economic-Miracles/dp/0393080269/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417304&sr=1-1&keywords=Breakout+Nations" style="color: #cc6600; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;">Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> by </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Ruchir-Sharma/e/B007F8C0SK/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344417304&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration: none;">Ruchir Sharma</a></li>
<li><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Happiness-Lessons-Science-Richard-Layard/dp/0143037013/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417085&sr=1-1&keywords=Happiness%3A+Lessons+from+a+New+Science" style="color: #996633; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Happiness: Lessons from a New Science</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> by </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Richard-Layard/e/B004MOQ6Z8/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344417085&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration: none;">Richard Layard</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> (***)</span></li>
<li><a class="title" href="http://www.amazon.com/Decades-Crisis-Central-Eastern-Europe/dp/0520229010/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344417156&sr=1-1&keywords=Decades+of+Crisis%3A+Central+and+Eastern+Europe+before+World+War+II" style="color: #996633; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Decades of Crisis: Central and Eastern Europe before World War II</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> by </span><span class="ptBrand" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/T.-Iv%C3%A1n-Berend/e/B001IZVDDY/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1344417156&sr=1-1" style="color: #996633; text-decoration: none;">T. Iván Berend</a> (</span><span class="bindingAndRelease" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">***)</span></li>
</ol>
Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-15018779489662559182012-07-21T11:58:00.001-07:002012-12-01T02:48:53.415-08:00Shame on the Economist! It is so wrong on PolandThe current edition of the Economist features an article on "<a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21559336">Dream on?"</a>, which is unprofessional, misleading and wrong on basic facts about Poland. <br />
<br />
First, it says that "In Poland, for example, credit to the private sector grew by an extraordinary 36.6% in 2008, contributing to a current-account deficit of almost 9% of GDP." This is manipulation, because it talks about growth from a level of private credit that it much lower than anywhere else among peers and thus much less worrisome (Poland's private credit to GDP ratio is one of the lowest in the whole EU, close to Romania only; it is much different to worry about fast credit growth in an economy with credit much exceeding 100% of GDP, like in most of the EU, than in Poland, with 60% of GDP or so). <br />
<br />
Second, thee current account deficit in 2008 was only 6.6% of GDP, according to the IMF, not almost 9% of GDP (where did they get the data from???). <br />
<br />
Third, it argues that "In recent months, the FDI and portfolio capital Poland required to fill this [current account gap] gap has flowed in the wrong direction. That leaves the country uncomfortably "susceptible" to the euro crisis, says Raffaella Tenconi of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, if it prompts a further withdrawal of cross-border lending", which is another manipulation since the data are taken out of context and are for only of couple of months of the year (exactly when dividends are paid to foreign owners of Polish companies, which biases the data, rather than for the usual whole year). For the whole year, the IMF projects a current account deficit of 4.4% of GDP only, largely financed by FDI and EU inflows. I don't know who Raffaella Tenconi from BoFA is, but she doesn't really know what she is talking about (or she has a short position on the zloty and wants to finance her early retirement....). As to her claim that Poland is susceptible to the euro crisis, while true in general (which country in Europe isn't?), is wrong in detail as Poland is one of the least, not the most susceptible economies in the EU to the euro zone further troubles. If fact, as I have argued before, the euro zone crisis is a blessing for Poland, since, inter alia, it keeps the zloty exchange rate so low, that Poland is Europe's China in terms of price competitiviness. The banking sector, which Tenconi implicitly argues would be the major channel of contagion, is well capitalized, profitable, and largely funded by domestic deposits making withdrawals of foreign financing less relevant (the two largest banks, PKO BP and PEKAO SA, have loan-to-deposit ratios below 100, meaning that all their loans are financed by domestic deposits, not foreign borrowing)<br />
<br />
Finally, it is a shame that the Economist continues to classify Poland as an emerging market, putting it in the same basket as China, Russia ot Turkey. Poland, with GDP per capita PPP of US$20,000, three times the level of China, is not an emerging market anymore. The World Bank and the OECD now officially classify Poland as a developed economy, not an emerging market. According to the IMF, Poland's GDP per capita will exceed that of Portugal and Greece in the next couple of years - perhaps we should call these countries "emerging" (even if for now they are rather "submerging" to be exact) too? Time for the Economist to grow up.Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-91180291102684974242012-05-13T11:25:00.000-07:002012-12-01T02:49:05.056-08:00Denmark 2020 VisionI have just come across this very <a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/Denmark_2020_knowledge_growth_prosperity_welfare.pdf">nice report </a>by the Danish Government, which could serve as a useful blueprint for a lot of countries in the EU and elsewhere.<br />
<br />
The report gas 10 explicit goals for 2020 (see below) and a set of detailed policy actions to achieve it.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#1._Denmark_is_to_be_among_the_world’s_10_wealthiest_countries" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">1. Denmark is to be among the world’s wealthiest
countries</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#2._The_Danish_supply_of_labour_is_to_be_among_the_10_highest_in_the_world" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">2. The Danish supply of labour is to be among the 10 highest in
the world</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#3._Danish_schoolchildren_are_to_be_among_the_cleverest_in_the_world" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">3. Danish schoolchildren are to be among the cleverest in the
world</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#4._At_least_one_Danish_university_is_to_be_in_Europe’s_top_10" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">4. At least one Danish university is to be in Europe’s top
10</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#5._Denmark_is_to_be_among_the_10_countries_in_the_world_where_people_live_the_longest" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">5. Denmark is to be among the 10 countries in the world where
people live the longest</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#6._Denmark_is_to_be_a_green,_sustainable_society_and_among_the_world’s_three_most_energy_efficient_countries" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">6. Denmark is to be a green, sustainable society and among the
world’s three most energy efficient countries</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#7._Denmark_is_to_be_among_the_best_at_creating_equal_opportunities" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">7. Denmark is to be among the best at creating equal
opportunities</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#8._Denmark_is_to_be_among_the_freest_countries_and_among_the_best_in_Europe_at_achieving_integration" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">8. Denmark is to be among the freest countries and among the best
in Europe at achieving integration</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#9._Danes_are_to_be_among_the_world’s_most_trusting_and_safe_people" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">9. Danes are to be among the world’s most trusting and safe
people</span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.stm.dk/publikationer/arbprog_10_uk/index.htm#10._The_public_sector_is_to_be_among_the_most_efficient_and_least_bureaucratic_in_the_world" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #666666;">10. The public sector is to be among the most efficient and least
bureaucratic in the world</span></a><br />
<br />Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-3864343714490231402012-04-26T05:55:00.002-07:002012-12-01T02:49:19.764-08:00Poland richer than Portugal!The new Golden Age of Poland and New Europe is coming fast...<br />
<br />
According to the new data from the IMF's World Economic Outlook (Spring 2012), GDP per capita PPP in Poland will exceed that of Portugal by 2015 (given the downside risks to growth in Portugal, probably even sooner), which will likely be the first time in Poland's more than 1000 year old history when Poles will become richer than the Portuguese.<br />
<br />
By 2017, Poles will be almost as rich as Greeks (although the IMF is probably too optimistic on Greece here..) and Saudi Arabs (except that Poland has no oil... with shale gas, if the predicted bonanza proves to be real, we will be richer than Saudi sheiks even sooner).<br />
<br />
I was right then back in 2009, at the bottom of the crisis, when I published a paper on "<a href="http://www.tiger.edu.pl/onas/piatkowski/artykuly/CEPA_The_Coming_Golden_Age_of_New_Europe_Oct_2009.pdf">The Coming Golden Age of New Europe</a>". I now hope to finish the book on it soon too. Stay tuned!Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999937071478114747.post-78826746606568581512012-04-06T03:00:00.001-07:002012-04-10T04:49:44.366-07:00My quote in the Economist's article on PolandThis week's edition of the Economist features an insightful article on "Poland's progress. Tusk takes two".<br />
<br />
I am quoted as saying that "growth this year could exceed 2.5%, reckons Marcin Piatkowski, a World Bank economist in Warsaw. He says Poland’s potential for productivity gains could make it the “Asian tiger of Europe”.<br />
<br />
My earlier quotes are here:<br />
<br />
<ul class="search-results" jquery1333706266472="107" sizcache="19" sizset="102"><li class="clearfix" sizcache="19" sizset="104"><div class="search-item-title" sizcache="19" sizset="104"><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18621646">Petri-dish economies: Poland: Few woes in Warsaw</a> </div><div class="search-item-meta">Apr 28th 2011, 10:55 from <span class="search-item-source"><strong>print edition</strong></span></div></li>
<li class="clearfix" sizcache="19" sizset="106"> <div class="search-item-title" sizcache="19" sizset="106"><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/13527532">Poland's economy: Not like the neighbours</a> </div><div class="search-item-meta">Apr 23rd 2009, 11:48 from <span class="search-item-source"><strong>print edition</strong></span> </div><div class="search-item-body" sizcache="19" sizset="107">says Marcin <strong>Piatkowski</strong>, a former IMF ...<a class="comment-icon" href="http://www.economist.com/node/13527532/comments#comments" title="Comments">(24)</a> </div></li>
<li class="clearfix" sizcache="19" sizset="108"> <div class="search-item-title" sizcache="19" sizset="108"><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/11667559">Europe.view: Red turns grey and gloomy</a> </div><div class="search-item-meta">Jul 3rd 2008, 7:29 from <span class="search-item-source"><strong>web-only article</strong></span> </div><div class="search-item-body" sizcache="19" sizset="109"><br />
</div></li>
</ul>Dr. Marcin Piatkowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16568214293712120210noreply@blogger.com0