Euro Area Is Coming to an End?

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, a former IMF Chief Economist, have just published an op-ed on Bloomberg, which predicts that the "euro area is coming to an end" (although, unlike the title of the article, no doubt imposed by the editors, the authors merely say that the euro zone is likely to change its membership, not collapse as a whole. Talking about misleading information..).

I agree with the risks, but still believe that a concerted action by the ECB/EC/IMF can save the euro zone. It is becoming increasingly difficult, but is still possible.

Why China will dominate the world sooner than we expect

Arvind Subramanian wrote an excellent book on "Eclipse. Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance", which is available in electronic form for free, where he argues that, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is much closer to become a reality than we expect. That includes the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next decade or so. He discusses what impact these changes would have on the global economy.

A good review of the book is here.

Workshop in Seville on "Investigating Industrial and Innovation policies for Growth"

On November 2-3, 2011, I participated in an international workshop on "Investigating Industrial and Innovation policies for Growth: Contrasting experts views" organized by the European Commision's IPTS in Seville, Spain.

I spoke on "The 10 billion euro question': how to most effectively support innovation in Poland". The slides are here

Belka in Financial Times on two-speed Europe

Marek Belka, Governor of the Polish central bank, published a very interesting op-ed in Financial Times (November 17) on "Europe cannot endure a rift between ins and outs". He argues for further European integration and reforms, both of which I strongly support.


His bottom line is the following:


"Now that the eurozone has approved greater financial firepower, it should effect debt restructuring for Greece and take measures to prevent spillover to other countries. Fiscal and financial supervision needs to be exercised as much as possible at the European level. It cannot be left as an almost exclusively national competence. Tough macroeconomic policies are crucial. Improving competitiveness may prove extremely difficult with rigid employment procedures, high costs of production and onerous taxation. Europe has to boost the quality of its export products and services compared with what Asia can offer. Non-eurozone countries have shown exemplary policies in all these fields. In the interests of EU cohesion, but also as regards their own economic objectives, euro members would be foolish to allow new barriers to grow between the eurozone and those outside. Eurozone strategies for higher growth and stability are welcome. They are far more likely to succeed if they embrace the whole EU"

U.S.-Central Europe Strategy Forum in Prague

On October 26-27, I spoke on a panel on "The EU After Greece: Toward a Two-Tiered Europe?" during a conference organized by the DC-based Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), where I published my two recent papers on New Europe's Golden Age and on the Warsaw Consensus, the new growth model for New Europe.


More info from CEPA's website:


"CEPA convened the third meeting of The U.S.-Central Europe Strategy Forum in Prague, Czech Republic. The Forum brought together a wide range of policy experts from both sides of the Atlantic, along with numerous mid-level policy professionals and leading authorities on U.S.-Central European relations, for a sustained dialogue on the state of America’s relations with its allies in the region."

Doing Business 2012 launch in Warsaw and Riga

On November 20 and 21, 2011, I presented the new World Bank's "Doing Business 2012" report in Poland and Latvia.

The Latvian Doing Business launch was particularly memorable, given that Latvia was included in this year's Top 10, global's ten best performing countries in regulatory reforms, and that at the press conference I was flanked by the Prime Minister Dombrovskis, minister of finance and minister of economy.

Pictures from the Warsaw and Riga presentations are here and here. There is also a video from the press conference in Riga.

New books read in the last month

As always, ranking starts from * to ***.

1. Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure by Tim Harford (May 10, 2011)***

2. Civilization: The West and the Rest by Niall Ferguson (2011)***

3. „Trans” by Manuela Gretkowska*

4. „Koźmiński Reaktywacja”, group authorship***

5. “Zgred” by Rafal Ziemkiewicz**

6. “Swiat do przerobki. Spekulanci, bankruci, giganci i ich rywale” by Witold M. Orlowski***